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In December 2020, this group of senior Russian, American and European experts offered governments a set of recommendations on Russia-NATO risk reduction. The recommendations addressed most of the areas of common ground so far sketched in Russian, US and NATO exchanges during the present crisis. Had those recommendations been acted upon, we might now be on a better path away from crisis.
We renew to all sides seven of our recommendations, updated to meet the present situation. They are simply good sense. They are modest, but they can be implemented tomorrow and would be a start on making Europe safer:
1. Regular meetings should be held between the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, the NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, reinforced by military experts, to address issues of current concern.
These meetings would not be to negotiate the present crisis but to ensure military deconfliction and day-to-day risk reduction at this time of heightened tension and military deployments. They would take place entirely separately from the series of prepared thematic meetings of the NATO-Russian Council that the NRC’s Chairman has proposed.
2. In addition, NATO member states and Russia should resume contacts at the level of military representatives in the NATO Military Committee and restore the Russian military liaison mission at SACEUR Headquarters.
These steps would parallel the establishment of civilian hotline communications that Russia has proposed and the re-opening of the Russian mission to NATO and of NATO liaison offices in Moscow proposed by NATO. They would rebuild the communication that for safety and good deterrence must take place in foul weather and not just fair.
3. Russia and NATO member states could agree that both sides will conduct large-scale military exercises, as a rule, at a militarily meaningful distance from their borders, but where geography prevents this then additional measures of notification, transparency and predictability must be taken. They should consider reducing the scale and frequency of military activities with respect to numbers and geography, in particular exercises near borders. Generally, military exercises should be executed responsibly, not provocatively.
Both sides should now be seeking to communicate militarily responsible, unprovocative behavior. The definitions of meaningful distance, scale and frequency could be the subject of discussion through the military channels proposed above. Military professionals are well able quickly to judge and report good faith or the absence of it.
4. Both sides could take initial steps in the form of parallel unilateral measures that do not necessarily require conclusion of a formal agreement between NATO, or NATO member states, and Russia, which could prove politically difficult to achieve in the present environment.
The crisis means that finding joint agreement on measures both large and small between Russia and NATO will generally require protracted, painstaking negotiation. A device for getting round this obstacle, especially for military risk reduction, is for commanders to order parallel, unilateral measures based either on informal mutual understandings or as a small, clearly communicated challenge to see whether the other side will reciprocate.
5. Russia and the United States could confirm that, irrespective of the course of the present crisis, they will systematically develop their dialogue on the future of strategic stability and cyber security as agreed at their Geneva summit in June 2021.
Progress on the fundamental issue of strategic stability is crucial, has its own value, and should not be subordinated to other levels and tracks of negotiations. We wholeheartedly support the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races, published on 3 January 2022, including the P5 commitment to the fundamental principle that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.
6. Russia and NATO could immediately agree to launch negotiations on a new zero option for the deployment in Europe of US and Russian intermediate-range land-based missiles and their launchers.
In their recent exchanges Russia, the United States and NATO have all indicated that they want to see progress on ground-based intermediate-range missiles.
7. Russia and NATO member states could immediately agree to launch negotiations on a package of measures on the basis of the existing bilateral and multilateral agreements on prevention of incidents at sea and above the sea, and on prevention of dangerous military activities.
In their recent exchanges Russia, the United States and NATO have all indicated that they would like to see progress in these very practical areas of risk reduction, which are particularly relevant to periods of heightened tension.
Taken together these seven measures would materially contribute not just to a reduction of Russia-NATO tension but a reduction of Russia-NATO risk.”
Russia-NATO Dialogue Group
February 2022
Russian signatories
Name
Position
1.
Dmitry Danilov
Head, Department of European security, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IERAS)
2.
Victor Esin
Colonel General (ret.), Former Head of the Main Staff of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, Research Professor, Centre for Advanced Studies of Russian National Security, HSE University
3.
Alexandra Filippenko
Senior Research Fellow, Department of Internal Policy Studies, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN)
4.
Valery Garbuzov
Director, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN)
5.
Alexey Gromyko
Director, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IERAS), Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences
6.
Evgenia Issraelian
Leading Research Fellow, Department of Canadian Studies, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN)
7.
Igor Ivanov
Minister of Foreign Affairs (1998-2004), former Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation (2004-2007), President of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)
8.
Andrey Kortunov
Director General, Russian International Affairs Council
9.
Oleg Krivolapov
Senior Research Fellow, Department for Military Political Research, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN)
10.
Valentin Kuznetsov
Vice Admiral (ret.), former Chief Military
Representative of the RF at NATO, Senior Research Fellow, Department for Military-Political Research, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN);
11.
Vladimir Lukin
Russian Ambassador to the United States (1992- 1994), director on the board of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Deputy Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council of the RF
12.
Alexander Nikitin
Director, Center for Euro-Atlantic Security, Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (MGIMO), Honorary President of the Russian Association of Political Science
13.
Mikhail Nosov
Member of Directorate, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IERAS)
14.
Sergey Oznobishev
Head, Department of Military and Political Analysis
and Research Projects, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO)
15.
Pavel Palazhchenko
Head of Press Office, Gorbachev Foundation
16.
Alexander Panov
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Honored Member of the Russian Diplomatic Service, Head, Department of Diplomacy MGIMO University
17.
Sergey Rogov
Academic Director, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN), Chairman of the International Security Advisory Board of the Scientific Council at the Security Council of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences
18.
Pavel Sharikov
Leading Research Fellow, Department of the European Integration, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IERAS)
19.
Igor Sherbak
Former First Deputy of the Permanent
Representative of the RF at the United Nations, Leading Research Fellow, Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IERAS)
20.
Alexey Stepanov
Research Fellow, Department for Military-Political Studies, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN)
21.
Nataliya Stepanova
Research Fellow, Department for Military-Political Studies, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN)
22.
Alexander Usoltsev
Head, International Relations Department, Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR)
23.
Fedor Voytolovsky
Director, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences
24.
Igor Yurgens
President of the All-Russian Insurance Association, Member of the Board of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs
25.
Andrey Zagorskiy
Head, Department for Disarmament and Conflict Resolution Studies, Primakov National Research Institute for World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)
26.
Pavel Zolotarev
Major General (ret.), Leading Research Fellow, Department of Military-Political Studies, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN)
Western signatories
Name
Position
27.
James Acton
Co-director, Nuclear Policy Program
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
28.
Roy Allison
Professor of Russian and Eurasian International Relations, Director, Russian and Eurasian Studies
Centre, St. Anthony’s College, Oxford
29.
James Bindenagel
Ambassador (ret.), Henry Kissinger Professor, Center for Advanced Security, Strategy and Integration Studies Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
30.
Sharan Burrow
General Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation
31.
Richard Burt
Chairman of Global Zero US, US Chief Negotiator in the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the former Soviet Union, former US Ambassador to Germany
32.
Samuel Charap
Former Senior Advisor to the Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security
33.
Pierce Corden
Former division chief, United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and research fellow at the Center for Science,
Technology and Security Policy, Amer. Assoc. for the Advancement of Science
34.
Christopher Davis
Professorial Research Fellow, University of Oxford
35.
Marc Finaud
Head of Arms Proliferation and Diplomatic Tradecraft, Geneva Centre for Security Policy
36.
Nancy Gallagher
Director, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
37.
Helmut W. Ganser
Brigadier General (ret.), Defence Advisor to the German NATO Delegation 2004-2008, Brussels
38.
Joseph Gerson
President, Campaign for Peace, Disarmament & Common Security
39.
Alexander Graef
Research Fellow, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH)
40.
Thomas Graham
Managing director, Kissinger Associates, Inc.
41.
Thomas Greminger
Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), former Secretary General of the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)
42.
Sven Hirdman
Ambassador to Russia 1994-2004, State Secretary Ministry of Defence of Sweden (1979-1982);
43.
Jon Huntsman
Former Ambassador to Russia, former Governor of Utah
44.
Daryl Kimball
Executive Director, Arms Control Association
45.
Lawrence Korb
US Navy Captain (ret.), former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Reagan Administration, Senior Research Fellow, Center for American Progress, and Senior Advisor, Defense Information Center;
46.
Reinhard Krumm
Director, FES Office for Peace and Security, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
47.
Ruediger Luedeking
Ambassador (ret), former Deputy Commissioner of the German Federal Government for Disarmament and Arms Control
48.
Douglas Lute
Lieutenant General (rt.), US Ambassador to NATO, 2013-2017, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center, Harvard
University
49.
Jack Matlock
US Ambassador to the Soviet Union (1987-1991)
50.
Hanna Notte
Senior Research Associate, Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP)
51.
Sam Nunn
Former U.S. Senator, Co-chair, NTI
52.
Olga Oliker
PhD, Adjunct Professor, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies
53.
Janusz Onyszkiewicz
Former Minister of National Defense of Poland
54.
Zachary Paikin
Researcher, EU Foreign Policy at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
55.
William Perry
Former US Secretary of Defense, Director of the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC, FSI Senior Fellow
56.
Andreas Persbo
Research Director, ELN
57.
Nicolai Petro
Professor of Political Science, University of Rhode Island
58.
Thomas Pickering
Former US Under Secretary of State, former Ambassador to Jordan, Nigeria, El Salvador, Israel, the United Nations, India and Russia
59.
Steven Pifer
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and research fellow at Stanford University;
60.
William Potter
Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
61.
Wolfgang Richter
Colonel (ret.), Senior Military Advisor of the Permanent Representation of Germany to the OSCE, Vienna (2005–2009); Senior Associate, International Security Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin (SWP)
62.
Cynthia Roberts,
Professor of Political Science, Hunter College, City University of New York, Senior Research Scholar, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies Columbia University
63.
Lynn Rusten
Vice President for Global Nuclear Policy, Nuclear Threat Initiative
64.
Kevin Ryan
Brigadier-General (ret), Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center
65.
Vladimir Senko
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus
66.
Reiner Schwalb
Brigadier-General (ret), National German Representative at NATO Allied Command Transformation, Norfolk/VA, 2007-2010; German Senior Defense Official and Attache to the Russian Federation, Moscow, 2011–2018
67.
Stefano Silvestri
Senior Scientifi c Advisor at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), former Under Secretary of State for Defence, former President of IAI (2001-2013);
68.
Graham Stacey
Senior Consulting Fellow, ELN, former Chief of Staff
of NATO Transformation
69.
Strobe Talbott
Distinguished fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, Deputy Secretary of State (1994-2001), President of the Brookings Institution (2002-2017)
70.
Bruno Tertrais
Deputy Director, Fondation pour la recherche stratégique (Foundation for Strategic Research, FRS)
71.
Greg Thielmann
Board member of the Arms Control Association, Commissioner of the U.S.-Russian-German “Deep Cuts” Project;
72.
Adam Thomson
Director of the European leadership network, Permanent UK representative to NATO (2014-2016)
73.
José M Treviño Ruiz
Admiral SP Navy (retired)
74.
Harlan Ullman
Senior Advisor, Atlantic Council
75.
Alexander Vershbow
Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, former NATO Deputy Secretary General; former US Ambassador to South Korea, NATO, Russia; Distinguished Visiting Fellow at University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House; Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council.
76.
Dov Zakheim
Vice Chair, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Former Under Secretary of Defense
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